There are two major categories of quantitative forecasting methods. The first type uses the past trend of a particular variable to base the future forecast of the variable. As this category of forecasting methods simply uses time series on past data of the variable that is being forecasted, these techniques are called time series methods (Ulrich, et al, 2004)... displayed 300 characters
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It is also used to identify competing new technology and to forecast sales. Before a new innovative product enters into the market Technology Forecasting is one of several methods used to determine if customers will buy it. The Technology method should always be used in conjunction with other tools to identify prospective customers, prototypes, focus groups, interviews, market testing, internet polls and other tools to get a better understanding of the market... displayed next 300 characters
The forecasted value of sales for the year 2008 is being put into this formula to calculate the net profit
The statistics is obtained by determining:
1) Correlation of Coefficient (r)
Correlation of coefficient (r) is a measure of the strength of relationship between the two variables...
But over 10 to 20 years period, new technology and the cost price of a product will undoubtedly change and the relationships will not remain constant. Furthermore, end-use analysis requires extensive data, since all relationships must be calculated as precisely as possible and if the data needed for end-use analysis is not current, it may not accurately reflect either present or future conditions, thus this can affect the accuracy of the forecast...
The fixed costs will be incurred anyway, and in the short term they should be disregarded. In making these decisions, the variable costs provide a good measure of the differential costs that need to be assessed...
Correlation analysis measures the degree of association between two or more variables. Parametric methods of correlation analysis assume that for any pair or set of values taken under a given set of conditions, variation in each of the variables is random and follows a normal distribution pattern...
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