Critics, mainly politicians and op-ed writers, attacked the futures project on the grounds that it was unethical and in bad taste to accept wagers on the fate of foreign leaders and the likelihood of terrorist attacks. The project was canceled a day after it was announced. Its head, retired Admiral John Poindexter, has resigned...
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The project was canceled a day after it was announced. Its head, retired Admiral John Poindexter, has resigned. The debate over the Policy Analysis Market has been quite contentious, but there have been few answers to several critical questions: How were the markets supposed to work? What were PAM's underlying theoretical and empirical assumptions? What was PAM supposed to produce in the way of intelligence? As the title of this essay asks, was the project an innovate way of thinking outside the box or just an off-the-wall idea? How the Policy Analysis Market (PAM) Would Have Worked? With the development during the last several decades of well functioning futures markets for many commodities, private sector analysts often use the prices from these markets as indictors of potential events...
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