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ENRON

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Issue:

Business

 

Written by:

Michael L

 

Date added:

April 29, 2014

 

Level:

University

 

Grade:

A

 

No of pages / words:

3 / 838

 

Was viewed:

6909 times

 

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Essay content:

In this part we apply the statistical method of 95% confidence level to find out the possible range that future HDD may fall within. We then compare the HDD confidence level with the strike amount that these contracts offer. Before calculation of the 95% confidence level of HDD, one critical factor to be considered is adjustment for the cyclical effects caused by EI Nino, La Nina, or Heat Island...
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The goal here is to forecast the most accurate HDD for next year. We see that the last EI Nino effect happened in 1998, implying it won't recur until 2005 which we base upon its frequency of occurring every seven years. We should get rid of this special cyclical effect while forecasting the HDD in 2001 which is supposed to be a normal year without any cyclical weather effect...
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