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Erikson And Welzien: Of Time And Presidential Election Forecasts

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However, as one steps further back from the election, the predictive power is depleted. Income growth and approval readings taken early in the election year can barely predict readings of the same variables just prior to the election. The findings reviewed show that approval is a stronger indicator, but also that as the electoral cycle evolves, the economy influences the Presidents standing which, in turn, reflects the verdict in the ensuing election in advance...
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The public continues to update its preferences as the election approaches. Forewarned before Forecast: Presidential Election Forecasting Models and the 1992 Election indicates that we will assessing election forecasting models, but does not give us an indication of how. The realibility of the forecasts is tested using models by James Campbell, Alan Abramowitz, Michael Lewsi-Beck, Rice and Ray Fair...
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